Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 00:46:45

AWUS01 KWNH 140046
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-140415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0930
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
845 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Far eastern OH...western PA...extreme northern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140045Z - 140415Z

Summary...Locally training thunderstorm segments will maintain the
threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding through 4Z, with
localized 2-3" possible.

Discussion...Radar mosaic over the eastern OH Valley depicts two
segments of thunderstorms exhibitng training characteristics ahead
of a slow moving cold front approaching from the northwest. One
segment of thunderstorms containing estimated 2-2.5"/hr rainfall
rates over Youngstown, OH prompted a Flash Flood Warning as they
trained over the city.

These very efficient rainfall rates suggest the environment in the
prefrontal airmass remains quite favorable for efficient warm
rainfall production in any additional convection which develops.
Recent mesoanalysis data corroborates this idea, and suggests
1.75-1.8" PWATs (around the 97th percentile per the NAEFS),
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (with no CIN), and 20 kts of effective shear
(oriented semi-parallel to the initiating boundary) are in the
vicinity of the ongoing activity even with loss of diurnal
heating. As such, the concern is for additional training segments
to develop in the short term with additional 2-2.5"/hr rates
possible. While the area has been dry as of late per NASA SPoRT,
recent runs of the HRRR suggest localized amounts of 2-3" will be
possible through 4Z, which could prompt additional instances of
flash flooding as 1 HR FFGs are in the 1.5-2"/hr range.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8tK9BEc_yBGSTwd_WQUg7sobBt85XDGfZudaEYMCp3tjvmwXkPsw9TQprCCKAd_tiUla=
jBx1epnCvRek3fRM759olW4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41477986 41267878 40707858 40297896 40117970=20
            40228090 40618133 41228092=20

=3D =3D =3D
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