Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 00:31:37

ACUS01 KWNS 140031
SWODY1
SPC AC 140030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are
expected this evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains.

....Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor
imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in
place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle
shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High
Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of
this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South
Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an
axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South
Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this
axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in
low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis,
which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident
on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually
veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6
km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte,
Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central
South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to
9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat
for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe
wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Broyles.. 08/14/2025

$$

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