Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1941
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 13 2025 23:52:19

ACUS11 KWNS 132351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132351=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota and adjacent portions of
North Dakota and Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132351Z - 140145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota (and
eventually far southeast North Dakota and far western Minnesota)
will pose an isolated hail risk this evening. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually maturing across northeast
SD over the past couple of hours with one weakly organized supercell
noted near KABR. This activity has been fairly isolated over the
past hour and has periodically intensified to severe limits. More
recently, new convection has developed northward near the ND border
as warm air advection in the lowest 3 km increases (per the KABR
VWP). VWP observations have also sampled strong 0-6 km bulk shear,
which should support organized storms given adequate buoyancy on the
eastern fringe of the richer low-level moisture plume. The
combination of continued ascent and strong shear will maintain some
potential for strong to severe convection through the evening hours
as the nocturnal low-level jet continues to intensify, though a
marginal thermodynamic environment and unfavorable storm motions
along the initiation zone (may hinder discrete storm modes) may
modulate overall storm intensity. The primary hazard will most
likely be large hail, but a few strong/severe wind gusts are also
possible. Given the isolated nature of the threat, watch issuance is
not expected.

...Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Kw0En_7aclBBpi29y-t9pK7d0F0M1j7qA-krs6P1v6eSE9W4Z7VyfzwXpEaKvlQTn4X8GvUf=
kfr7z4xvZdcqDTxtdo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45109856 45789882 46079867 46349837 46439804 46359771
            45399637 45109617 44909615 44549645 44509671 44529704
            45109856=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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