Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1938
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 13 2025 16:42:43

ACUS11 KWNS 131642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131642=20
NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131642Z - 131845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts are possible through this afternoon
from parts of the Delaware Valley into western New England, capable
of sporadic tree damage. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Similar to yesterday's setup in the Midwest, convection
has increased along/ahead of remnant outflows from overnight/morning
activity. Additional congested CU has developed across the higher
terrain of the interior Northeast/western New England, as lower
elevation temperatures have reached the mid 80s to low 90s. Weakness
in both mid-level lapse rates and low to mid-level winds will limit
updraft strength and organization. But the increasing number of
storms combined with the warm airmass downstream should support
sporadic microbursts capable of producing 45-60 mph gusts. Based on
latest trends, this may be centered across the Lower Hudson Valley
and eventually into parts of CT/MA/NH.

...Grams/Mosier.. 08/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ypqU4Dr-diHuF1nFE1ZJXxzlAPe97IOOOSvWlbUdtAGdnthJ1eS3QfgZY-7HgmFVSHV07aNf=
-UAkHYqH-juYzt2mAE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   42807397 43607350 43837309 43937206 43787134 43417122
            42487165 41387253 40657369 40417407 40507524 40707554
            41657489 42467402 42807397=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH




=3D =3D =3D
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