Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1937
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 12 2025 22:00:03

ACUS11 KWNS 122159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122159=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-130000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Areas affected...Southern/eastern Lower MI...northern IN...far
northwest OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122159Z - 130000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind will continue into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection has gradually intensified over the
last 1-2 hours across parts of central/southern Lower MI, with a
more isolated discrete cell moving along a quasi-stationary surface
boundary across southeast Lower MI. Despite poor midlevel lapse
rates, relatively strong heating and rich moisture has allowed
MLCAPE to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range downstream of the
ongoing convection. Deep-layer flow is relatively modest, though
20-30 kts of unidirectional southwesterly flow aloft (as noted on
recent VWPs from KGRR) may allow for some continued storm clustering
with time. A threat for locally damaging wind will spread eastward
with this convection this evening, especially where stronger heating
and steepening of low-level lapse rates occurred this afternoon.
Backed surface winds near/north of the boundary across southeast
lower MI will locally enhance effective shear/SRH, and a transient
supercell or two with marginal hail potential cannot be ruled out as
well.

...Dean/Hart.. 08/12/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7af9Ep-nGf-7tzA3rKZ6JIDsl4ubiIyfgX1ZaarA7Hc6xXNosaG5mSYfy2YGn_EZllsExcWxN=
jJqNUlFXwvLcK2m5-Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43318444 44328369 44048260 42778225 42168269 41908342
            41408484 40858679 41398665 43318444=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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