Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 12 2025 19:28:49 ACUS03 KWNS 121927 SWODY3 SPC AC 121926 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central Alberta/Saskatchewan early Thursday morning before then continuing gradually eastward and ending the period over the central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border vicinity. Extensive surface troughing will precede this system, likely extending from central Saskatchewan into the central High Plains early Thursday. Primary surface low associated with this system is forecast to occlude over central Saskatchewan while a secondary low develops over southern Manitoba and moves eastward/northeastward into far northwestern Ontario. As the secondary surface low moves east, an attendant cold front is expected to move eastward/southeastward across the Dakotas and western MN. A very moist airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, will precede this front. This low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in very strong buoyancy (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE). Despite ample low-level moisture, substantial capping will likely persist across much of the northern Plains given the very warm low/mid-level temperatures (on the order 20 to 25 deg C at 850 mb). Forcing along the front should be strong enough to overcome this capping across eastern ND, with uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage increasing with southern extent across SD. The strong buoyancy and moderate vertical shear will support large to potentially very large hail with the initially more cellular storms. Warm and dry low to mid-levels suggest strong downdrafts are possible with mature storms as well. Upscale growth is uncertain given the prevailing capping and more limited buoyancy downstream into MN. ...Mosier.. 08/12/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .