Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 12 2025 05:41:50 ACUS01 KWNS 120540 SWODY1 SPC AC 120538 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ....Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ....Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ...Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .