Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 12 2025 00:45:34

AWUS01 KWNH 120045
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-120643-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0912
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of Eastern NM, the TX Panhandle, & OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120043Z - 120643Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across this region are
expected to concentrate near southwest OK by 07z.  Hourly amounts
to 3" with local totals to 5" are expected, which would continue
to lead to scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Thunderstorms continue to build and move across
portions of eastern NM, the TX Panhandle, northwest TX, and
portions of OK, focusing and being driven forward by outflow
boundaries. They have a history of producing hourly amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" thus far this afternoon and evening.  A ML
CAPE gradient exists near the effective frontal zone, with pockets
of 2000-3000 J/kg of instability in its warm sector.  Effective
bulk shear has spread eastward, with a magnitude of 25-35 kts
regionally.  Precipitable water values are 1-1.25" in the High
Plains and 2"+ across portions of OK.  So far, much of the
thunderstorm activity has resembled pulse convection, with cell
mergers and very short periods of training occurring and being
important to heavy rain efficiency.  In some areas, backbuilding
has been noted.  Central and southern OK convection has been
backbuilding and pushing slowly westward, driven by outflow
boundaries.=20

Both the 12z REFS and 18z HREF probabilities suggest a set of
outflow boundaries approaching Clovis NM helps drive a new
convective cluster which joins forces with TX Panhandle activity
in their combined quest to move eastward along an outflow boundary
intersection.  This cluster has the benefit of a stronger
low-level inflow from the Gulf.  Meanwhile, outflow boundaries in
OK pushes convective clusters apart in central OK early on,
driving some activity eastward to form one last merger not far
from McAlester OK.  Another, more significant merger between the
TX Panhandle/northwest TX activity and the OK activity is
advertised across far southwest OK by 07z with the TX activity
appearing to grow in dominance/importance as it attempts to
continue eastward thereafter, possibly aided to a growing cold
pool.  While there have been small pockets of heavy rainfall, much
of the region has been dry during the past seven days.  Scattered
flash flood issues are expected to be mainly urban.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9aQARXSXRcfoWpzQbtTM7luyrGvNLApaUgxR8KwV5wRMFwP1DSY9Ui4XdT3JTmaavS0h=
V0v3ZFu2_7UFnMKuHxWNg2Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SGF...SJT...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36579481 36509413 35299454 34019570 33399700=20
            33269908 33740111 33350320 33420399 33580428=20
            33710506 34270438 35090434 35250306 35500190=20
            35790088 35599967 35459910 35379869 35349741=20
            35779619 36559495=20

=3D =3D =3D
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