Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1933
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 12 2025 00:41:00

ACUS11 KWNS 120040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120040=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-120215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle/South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120040Z - 120215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for hail and localized severe gusts may spread
southeastward through the evening.

DISCUSSION...A couple of longer-lived supercells have evolved out of
vigorous convection near/north of Amarillo over the last 1-2 hours.
The 00Z AMA sounding depicted relatively cool temperatures aloft
(around -10 C at 500 mb), moderate buoyancy, and sufficient
west-northwesterly midlevel flow for 30-40 kt of effective shear.
Large hail and localized severe gusts will continue to pose a threat
in the short-term with these cells.=20

Outflow associated the ongoing cells and earlier convection has
grown and is moving southeastward toward the southern TX Panhandle
and parts of the South Plains. A diffuse surface confluence zone
with backed surface winds is located downstream of the ongoing
storms and outflow, which could help to maintain a severe threat
through the evening. Some modest upscale growth along the outflow
cannot be ruled out, though generally weak low-level flow may limit
this potential to some extent. Regardless, some uptick in
severe-wind potential cannot be ruled out over the next 1-2 hours.

...Dean/Hart.. 08/12/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5z--izPptKAyz3_cmeqA1cOohv6QhSIbjCjpzzm0ZrXLzsBvd1ZLxfGaEDt5-PX3n7XLQb03R=
0MiEgVpeliZ6NodR04$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34850216 35210193 35380096 35240020 34829995 34270023
            34040103 34440202 34850216=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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