Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 12 2025 00:39:58

ACUS01 KWNS 120038
SWODY1
SPC AC 120037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts
of the southern Plains and the Upper Midwest this evening.

....01z Update...

Mid-level flow is turning a bit more northwesterly across the
southern High Plains early this evening as upper troughing shifts
into the central Plains. Scattered robust convection is currently
noted across eastern NM-southern TX-Panhandle into portions of OK.
This activity may continue to expand in areal coverage as it
propagates southeast into modest low-level southerly inflow,
especially given the upper support with the slow-moving upper
trough. Gusty winds or hail may continue to be noted with the
strongest storms this evening.

Farther north across the MN region, notable short-wave trough
currently extends from MB into the eastern Dakotas. Latest model
guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across ND into
western MN by 12/12z and this feature should continue to encourage
convection along the surface front as it progresses across the Upper
Midwest. Isolated hail/wind threat remain possible with the
strongest storms.

...Darrow.. 08/12/2025

$$

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