Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1932
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 12 2025 00:27:21

ACUS11 KWNS 120026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120025=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-120230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Central northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120025Z - 120230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and severe hail may be possible as
a cluster of thunderstorms spreads northeast into a buoyant air
mass.

DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours a cluster of single-cell
and multi-cell thunderstorms has evolved over southwest MO. Most
cells have exhibited relatively short duration as a result of poor
shear over the region (per the KSGF VWP). Because of this, it has
been unclear whether an appreciable severe threat would emerge out
of this cluster. However, over the past 30 minutes, MRMS vertical
ice data and IR imagery suggests a few deeper cells are approaching
severe limits, possibly due to the influence of slightly stronger
mid-level winds associated with a passing MCV to the
north/northeast. New convective development is anticipated on the
north/northeastern fringe of a consolidating cold pool where MLCAPE
remains fairly high downstream (2000-2500 J/kg). While this activity
will remain on the periphery of the stronger mid-level wind field,
deep-layer shear may be enough for a few more prolonged cells with
some threat for hail and/or damaging downbursts over the next couple
of hours before inhibition begins to substantially increase via
nocturnal cooling. While a few instances of severe hail/wind are
possible, the overall threat will remain too limited to warrant
watch issuance.

...Moore/Hart.. 08/12/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6PaX4QsaF-O1xNZYtu8pDoKHrQn40zzrKTEfmXOBhIwnZ4Ulx_GPL-8Hq9sngH5M2lUbe0bmt=
Wn0RMcCfhwmr91panY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37709346 37919388 38299401 38679397 40409321 40519272
            40369198 40039155 39649130 39229123 38869131 38579143
            38339161 37709346=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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