Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1931
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 22:35:28

ACUS11 KWNS 112235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112235=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-120030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112235Z - 120030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing late this afternoon across
east-central NM, with recent development noted farther east into the
TX Panhandle and South Plains. Midlevel temperatures are seasonably
cool, with steep lapse rates in the 700-500 mb layer (as noted on
the 18Z AMA and ABQ soundings), and effective shear is somewhat
enhanced by midlevel flow of 20-30 kt (especially where surface
winds are backed). This could result in a few organized multicells
or marginal supercells, with a threat of isolated hail and strong
gusts. Consolidating outflow could result in some clustering/upscale
growth with time, which could support an increase in the severe-wind
threat on a localized basis later this evening.

...Dean/Hart.. 08/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-EtsHhIlUJMVm53y-3FrHon_Lic5dckWNdiAGSpA-FF4LjDZyfGqfLHWZIrEi7H-ie4zeItHy=
5dXMoWhyn4k8jFYBr4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36630522 36290234 35870042 34220001 33630026 33310089
            33050209 32910408 32990510 34780571 36630522=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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