Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1929
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 20:28:58

ACUS11 KWNS 112028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112028=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-112200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...central Oklahoma into northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112028Z - 112200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...A slow moving cold front is advancing southeast across
Oklahoma. Ahead of this front, temperatures in the low to mid 90s
and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s have yielded 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE amid moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km per 12Z
OUN RAOB). A remnant MCV can be seen in visible satellite imagery
approaching central Oklahoma which will also likely be a focus for
stronger storms this afternoon/evening. Very weak shear (~15 knots
per TLX/INX VWP) will result in mostly unorganized convection,
although a few multicell clusters are possible. Isolated damaging
wind gusts will be possible, but no watch is anticipated.

...Bentley/Smith.. 08/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4k_6UJS-V2DN4VU55htcg6yLCS_Hnmwz5kGrWfxypx_sGwq-_RDnlspaGQ99Vf95-AO6eArnE=
oIAOn6rrIpnFwvMkcg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34689780 34639801 34639821 34869837 35149833 35379817
            35769758 36289664 36679595 37029564 37289538 37359491
            37229458 36789454 35929515 35349627 35039676 34789737
            34689780=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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