Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 20:18:34

AWUS01 KWNH 112018
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120147-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0911
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...KS/MO/OK border southwest across central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112017Z - 120147Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop from=20
southwest MO into central OK.  Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to isolated to
widely scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...A surface convergence zone/baroclinic trough
stretches from western MO past the MO/KS/OK border junction
through north-central OK.  Near this boundary is an ML CAPE
gradient, with values of 2500-3000 J/kg lying to its south.  An
MCV from overnight convective activity is entering central OK from
the west while another overnight MCV moves across portions of IA
to the north.  Precipitable water values are ~1.8".  Effective
bulk shear is just shy of 25 kts per SPC mesoanalyses.  CIN has
nearly eroded.

The mesoscale guidance appears to be modeling the development of
this convective activity well, thus far.  It is showing the entire
axis lighting up over the next several hours, which will help
force the boundary southward late in the period.  Northeastern
areas near the KS/MO border have had a bit of rain lately, leaving
them more sensitive.  Otherwise, it's been dry across much of OK.=20
Issues should primarily reside where soils have been partially
compromised in northeastern areas, in urban areas, and any
sections of the Ozarks or Boston Mountains that thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall transect.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6JcSoLpPMAoIG3mXlrrw1ivQ9BbBREYoZEsirevNHU6ma63ijgnteiqi8nDHQiYPjB-1=
5CmcqpYM5NdycaZwmFt_94w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38169409 37899353 37259353 36639383 35409532=20
            35099798 35889815 36849682 37509557 38149468=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.