Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 19:48:04

AWUS01 KWNH 111947
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120146-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0910
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...circa northeast NM & the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111946Z - 120146Z

Summary...Cumuli are showing growth near the NM/CO border and
across portions of the TX Panhandle.  Showers and thunderstorms
which evolve from them have the potential for hourly rain amounts
to 2" with local totals to 4".

Discussion...Cumuli are getting feisty near the NM/CO border in
area terrain not far to the east of an upper level low dropping
into northwest NM, with some signal of cumulus growth also
apparent in the northwest TX Panhandle where a surface convergence
zone/weak baroclinic trough was noted in 19z surface observations.
 Precipitable water values of 0.5-1.5" lie across the region.  An
ML CAPE gradient is noted near the convergence zone on SPC
mesoanalyses, with 500-2000 J/kg values in its vicinity.=20
Effective bulk shear of 20-30 kts exists at the moment.  CIN is
reducing across the region.

While there's some disparity amongst the mesoscale guidance, the
most coherent signal shows that convection near the CO/NM border
forms and drops southeast to south-southeast, roughly in line with
the ML CAPE gradient and 850-400 hPa mean wind but somewhat into
the instability field.  Some of the activity that forms across
portions of northern and central NM then turns east along the
trough/instability gradient into the TX Panhandle while growing in
scale as the low-level inflow from the Gulf begins to increase and
moisture import increases further.  Given the available
parameters, hourly rain to 2" with local totals to 4" are
possible.  The region has been dry over the past week, so any
flash flood issues are most likely to be isolated to widely
scattered and near area burn scars, dry washes/arroyos, or across
urban areas within this region.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6MVkTYOPbBiYoy0dlZKlJ0tTeBEDfkLTRi6TA19pauTbPQs3qA7fFm-iaZQ_g0jRffI5=
21zuMLyiCZPHemO7Ev7vb1g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37660514 37450462 36290277 36660047 36529988=20
            35769998 34490079 33810262 33750455 34780620=20
            36000569 36500540 37230523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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