Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 18:28:46

AWUS01 KWNH 111827
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-112330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0908
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Northeast North Carolina through Hampton Roads

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111825Z - 112330Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue developing and
drifting north from northeast North Carolina through Hampton Roads
this afternoon. Localized rainfall of 2.5"/hr is likely to
continue with possible totals of 4" possible. Localized flash
flooding can be expected to 23Z.

Discussion...Southerly flow over eastern NC is pushing 2" PW up
over Hampton Roads. Scattered thunderstorms have developed over
northeast NC with newer activity in southern sections of Virginia
Beach. Sufficient instability is present with SBCAPE of 1500-2500
J/kg with a decreasing gradient north of Hampton Roads and warm
rain processes are maximizing rates with with recent hourly
rainfall of 2.5" in the heaviest activity.

Recent HRRR runs are decent in coverage, but somewhat light on
intensity and depict a bit of a northward drift in activity over
southeast VA rest of the afternoon. Flash flood guidance is
higher, generally 2.5"/hr, but lower as typical for the Hampton
Roads metro around 1.5"/hr. The combination of high moisture and
sufficient instability should allow for localized rainfall rates
of up to 3"/hr which would cause localized flash flooding rest of
the afternoon, especially in urban areas.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!84iEyxG36aIxsn_UaI8WR-zFv1D7DKjdtU4DWRFyckzMD1qb9skYB65hWAW1HNEXfdDN=
-GIoES9MMpQwsa6LcprM4fo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37217644 37007597 36567569 36077553 35727554=20
            35537676 36417780 36877783 37137736=20

=3D =3D =3D
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