Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 16:24:28 AWUS01 KWNH 111624 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-112215- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0907 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1224 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Carolinas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 111622Z - 112215Z Summary...Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue developing along an axis from the South Carolina Coast to the North Carolina Blue Ridge rest of this afternoon. Rainfall of 2"/hr is likely to continue and expand in coverage with localized totals exceeding 4" possible rest of this afternoon. Localized flash flooding can be expected. Discussion...Broad scale southerly flow is present over the Southeast with a trough along the Carolina Coast. A somewhat focused corridor of activity has developed from the SC coast north of Charleston inland to the NC Blue Ridge which is ahead of a mid-level vort lobe drifting north over southern SC per recent RAP runs. Heavy thunderstorms moved through Charleston late morning with continued development lifting along the coast. A new cluster of thunderstorms have developed in the past hour over interior northern SC and heavy showers continue from this morning from around Charlotte west through the southern NC Blue Ridge (with further growth possible through the diurnal max). Robust, tropically sourced moisture is present over this corridor with 2.3" PW along the coast and 2" butting up against the Blue Ridge which is around 2 sigma above normal across the region. SBCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg along this corridor is allowing this development and warm rain processes are maximizing rates with with recent hourly rainfall of 1.5-2" in the heaviest activity. Recent HRRR runs are a little subdued compared to reality, but generally focus afternoon development along this corridor. Flash flood guidance is 1.5-2"/hr in the Piedmont/foothills and generally 2.5"/hr in the Coastal Plains. The combination of extreme moisture and sufficient instability should allow for localized extreme rainfall rates of up to 3"/hr which would cause localized flash flooding rest of the afternoon. Given the broad scale of the elevated moisture across the Southeast, further consideration will be given to other areas outside this corridor (which is purposefully just north of vulnerable Columbia based on trends), but for now this appears to be the most likely area for flash flood concern this afternoon. Jackson ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77LrHy1BKj_4tDjjzsU5WhBxJE4Ckbp5p4kZZxM9J6FPdb3bTyIOg5lbRxyhTcjy5DZU= QMAAciAty_IQwNIQGgOoLvg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 36148091 35548025 34977938 34157846 33837816=20 33377879 32557976 33398034 34238083 34838193=20 35248224 35698214 36108153=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .