Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 14:34:30

AWUS01 KWNH 111434
FFGMPD
FLZ000-111930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0906
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111432Z - 111930Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to push west from
Apalachee Bay rest of this morning. Extreme rainfall rates of 3"+
per hour should continue with this activity. Flash flooding is
considered possible through the early afternoon in this rather
flash flood resistant area.

Discussion...A trough extends up through Apalachee Bay with
rotation apparent in regional radar. Scattered thunderstorms with
torrential rain rates are focused west of this trough along the
western Apalachee Bay shoreline. Westward expansion and shifting
of this complex is expected to continue as directed by an upper
ridge extending from the Atlantic along the FL/GA border. Extreme
moisture is present along this trough axis with recent RAPs
estimating 2.5" PW. High instability is also present with SBCAPE
up to 3000 J/kg estimated by the RAP in Apalachee Bay with a tight
gradient to 1500 J/kg near the Apalachicola National Forest SW of
Tallahassee.

Continued rainfall rates of 2-3"+/hr should be expected with
potential for localized 5"+ in three hours. Given 3hr FFG around
4", the flash flood threat would be for repeating activity which
is not currently developed and recent HRRRs do not depict much
additional development through early afternoon. However, renewed
development certainly could occur given the high instability
upstream over the Bay and peak diurnal heating. This area west of
the FL Big Bend is rather flash flood resistant, but rainfall
exceeding 4" through midday would cause at least localized
flooding issues. Flash flooding is considered possible at this
time.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6CGFOW9-0_-_CLE7SbAp2XL46xR5B2AYx3xgrqwlRLUJZo_M7vTtzwxewz_eguWWm7lm=
U_pHUghRRE5QzpTpagfb4v8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   30398483 30138428 30008414 29748430 29568470=20
            29508501 29648544 30158588 30378546=20

=3D =3D =3D
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