Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 12:04:25

AWUS01 KWNH 111203
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-111600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0904
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111201Z - 111600Z

Summary...Development ahead of an MCS allows a flash flood risk to
persist this morning over southeast Kansas into western Missouri.

Discussion...The MCS that crossed southern Kansas overnight has
seen renewed growth over southeast KS with a left book end vortex
turning into an MCV near Emporia. Currently activity that
developed near Chanute is now having the MCS cross which raises a
localized flash flood concern. An axis of high moisture with some
instability extending east into Missouri poses a possible flash
flood risk rest of this morning as the MCS progresses east.

SWly 850mb flow of 25-30kt is forecast by the RAP to persist ahead
of the MCS into western MO through 14Z. This will maintain PW
around 2". MUCAPE is a bit lacking ahead of the MCS generally
between 500-1000 J/kg, but given recent upward trends, there may
be sufficient instability to allow further growth. Furthermore,
areas ahead of the MCS along the KS/MO line have lowered FFG of
1.5/hr given heavy rain yesterday. Flash flooding is considered
possible over the rest of southeastern KS south of the KC metro
into western MO and this activity will continue to be monitored.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_j3YL7eprleIk666mpilVuZdyd0pqGJZ8v8FHZo0u1spix3hbDb1FPkO78QUsOga6I3y=
sEpZEzw5x0PgwdKZa0p-VLM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38869359 38179304 37429311 37069422 36949496=20
            37089599 37949590 38459614 38809523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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