Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 08:53:28

ACUS48 KWNS 110853
SWOD48
SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into
the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A
surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the
Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5
morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture
return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real
instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into
northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15%
severe area has been introduced.

This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a
front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN
and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and
south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may
depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation
of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5.

Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift
northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS.

...Jewell.. 08/11/2025

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