Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1928
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 07:45:36

ACUS11 KWNS 110744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110743=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-110915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1928
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern KS into northern OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587...

Valid 110743Z - 110915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts remain possible as storms shift
east across southern KS and northern OK the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized bowing MCS will continue shifting east
the next few hours. The downstream airmass is modestly unstable,
with latest mesoanalysis data indicating around 1000-1500 J/kg
MUCAPE. Vertical shear also will remain somewhat modest, but
sufficient for organized convection, at least in the short term.
Measured severe gusts in southern KS over the past hour have been in
the 60-70 mph range, and this may persist another 1-2 hours given a
well defined rear-inflow jet and mature bowing MCS. With time,
gradual weakening is expected across southeast KS/northeast OK where
earlier and ongoing precipitation ahead of the MCS will likely limit
downstream severe, especially east of the I-35 corridor.

...Leitman.. 08/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!71m-hCFkt7bFmFLLuTvPhPwKfS0RXpimMHZf9StgDJWwUEudugdP68BBuZs_j2AKmmV7EqVfi=
LnxFsgANBGDYQlFrrY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38359887 38449718 38069608 36689599 36209620 36169874
            36369934 37599944 38359887=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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