Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1927
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 04:11:06

ACUS11 KWNS 110409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110408=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-110545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...Southwest/south-central KS into
northwest/north-central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586...

Valid 110408Z - 110545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind threat may increase late tonight, along
with a continued threat for isolated hail. Watch issuance downstream
of WW 586 may be needed.

DISCUSSION...The remnant of an earlier storm cluster across
southeast CO (and a related midlevel vorticity maximum) is in the
process of intercepting a cluster of supercells across southwest KS
late this evening. This interaction, combined with a gradually
increasing low-level jet and easterly flow near/north of a remnant
boundary, could lead to upscale growth and development of a
forward-propagating MCS. Should this occur, the severe-wind threat
(including potential for gusts near or above 75 mph) would increase
into the early overnight hours. Strong buoyancy and 30-40 kt of
effective shear will also continue to support occasional supercells,
with a threat of hail and possibly a brief tornado.=20

Farther east, a storm cluster across north-central OK may continue
to backbuild, as new cells continue to form to the cool side of a
westward-moving outflow. Effective shear is this region is somewhat
weaker (generally 25-30 kt), but sufficient for occasional organized
cells in the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
buoyancy. Hail and locally damaging wind will remain a threat with
the strongest cells in this cluster.=20

The westward-moving outflow from the northern OK cluster will
eventually impinge upon the upscale-growing cluster across southwest
KS, and potentially result in some weakening overnight. However,
before any such weakening occurs, an organized severe-wind threat
may spread downstream of WW 586, potentially resulting in new watch
issuance.

...Dean/Guyer.. 08/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8iTRIelTdd6ZfWERDUnzsZV_ZClsvgQghdDdv4tB1t6_OID_Q6v_d7blzETuogxLt4makoCsI=
1f5h8BPrSafBPXAWR4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37920129 38310077 38209895 38179795 37829731 37149683
            36629699 36519768 36509819 36499922 36610002 36680089
            36840113 37010146 37920129=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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