Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 01:03:31 ACUS01 KWNS 110102 SWODY1 SPC AC 110101 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ....Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ....Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ....Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ....Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ...Moore.. 08/11/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .