Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 00:54:20 AWUS01 KWNH 110054 FFGMPD MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-110653- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0900 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 853 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...eastern CO, western KS, near the KS/OK border, & southwest MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 110053Z - 110653Z Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to bridge across from CO near the KS/OK border over the next six hours. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" over an increasingly broad scale should allow for scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding through 07z. Discussion...Over the past 2-3 hours, thunderstorms have been developing and congealing across portions of southwest MO and near the eastern KS/OK border within and in the gradient north of an ML CAPE pool of 3500 J/kg. CIN continues to erode here. A front bisects the OK/KS border from east-northeast to west-southwest.=20 To the west, elevated thunderstorms continue their march across eastern CO and far northeast NM. Precipitable water values of 1.25" in the High Plains to 2" farther east are seen near the boundary. Effective bulk shear of 25-35 kts exist across the area. As the low-level jet continues backing/edging to the west along the OK/KS border, there should be a tendency for convection to reform farther west from southwest MO and southeast KS. At the same time, convection from CO is expected to move across western KS. By 06z, either a merger of the two convective areas or outflow from the activity currently across CO should lead to a significant enhancement of heavy rainfall in or near southwest KS. The 18z HREF advertises a nearly 20% chance of 5" through 06z, and has similar odds of 8" in the 00z-12z time frame in far southern KS. Meanwhile, the WoFS maximum is mostly south of the eastern two-thirds of the OK/KS border, possibly due to ongoing convection eroding the northern portion of the instability pool in that area. Cell training, possible random mesocyclones, and cell mergers are expected to lead to locally higher rain totals. With a broadening scale of hourly rain amounts to 3" and local totals to 5", and despite dryness over much of these region during the past week, scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are expected overnight, which is expected to be underway before 07z. Roth ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!47i8czHkhAkAkTnNQFH3PKpQcV5Eqb9_Wj957hAp3ylTFyR884A4903Tssi3CKigeuv1= sy9FqW_kYowunYcsH1wepIM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...EAX...GLD...ICT...LSX... OUN...PUB...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40240316 39830139 38519954 38209793 38559547=20 38969282 37259262 36369516 35819960 35760028=20 35890207 36460351 38000446=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .