Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 11 2025 00:16:02

AWUS01 KWNH 110014
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-110412-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0899
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
813 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110012Z - 110412Z

Summary...A convective cluster is moving briskly into southwest
WI, and along with additional thunderstorms forming in its
neighborhood, is threatening saturated areas of southeast WI.=20
Hourly rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" remain possible.

Discussion...A small thunderstorm cluster continues moving
east-northeast at 30 kts into southwest WI.  Overshooting cloud
tops continue to be noted prior to sunset on Veggie Band imagery.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.75-2".  An instability gradient
exists across southern WI which continues to edge northward to
sustain this cluster, with maximum values of 2000-2500 J/kg.=20
Effective bulk shear of 25-35 kts exists in the area.

As new cells are forming at its leading edge and to its east
closer to Chicago, there is little sign of the cluster trying to
arc out into a convective line yet.  As soils were significantly
saturated across southeast WI with 5-14" of rain last night, they
would be sensitive to hourly amounts to 2" or local totals to 4"
wherever cells merge, train, or a mesocyclone manages to form and
track.  The mesoscale guidance as a whole has been struggling
here, so left the category as Possible, but wherever the cluster
moves over saturated soils or urban areas, flash flooding would be
possible.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_mAknFSP-2poDSznjFXOEwP5IXOD6S7vqEEu-HVJg-wlsfsplz0g4eoeqRo3zefBiWSS=
zC7lOa-ft_DYMDi01rtYSF8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   43758869 43538789 42538759 42278781 41989025=20
            42019156 42629138 43349035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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