Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 23:29:50

AWUS01 KWNH 102329
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-110328-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0898
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of the TX Big Bend, Southern NM, &
Southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102328Z - 110328Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms continue to hold on across the
region, and should do so for another several hours as they sink
towards Mexico.  Until they wane tonight, hourly amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" remain possible.

Discussion...Overshooting convective tops continue with the
convection across the TX Big Bend, southern NM, and southeast AZ.=20
The region is at the base of an upper level trough which is
providing difluence aloft.  Precipitable water values are
0.9-1.3", fairly moist for sites with elevation.  ML CAPE of
500-2000 J/kg remains across the region, and CIN is beginning to
return to the area.

The expectation is for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to
continue sagging south and eastward, either dissipating on their
way to the US/Mexico border across AZ and NM weakening while
entering northwest TX or the TX Panhandle over the next four
hours.  Guidance insists that thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
will hold on the longest near the southeast AZ border with Mexico.
 Until they fade or cross into Mexico, hourly rain amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" remain possible.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8thnvrDqD6DjnWZfoG4rYQ2wFQp3not2GtqVWxxqcwqvZLh3hf9iDN_y7OH-CRmD9mxJ=
u7lg9PHZWgUz51x_UW9M9Ss$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...LUB...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34630190 31970233 29390382 30510587 31200706=20
            31070872 31101118 31531240 32281265 33651106=20
            34111005 34230857 33050638 32810420 34380358=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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