Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1922
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 17:47:21

ACUS11 KWNS 101747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101746=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-101845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into far northeast New
Mexico...western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...and extreme western
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 101746Z - 101845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are expected to gradually develop and
intensify along the Front Range in the next few hours. Severe wind
and hail will be the main threats, though a tornado cannot be ruled
out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating is supporting boundary-layer
destabilization on both sides of a west-to-east baroclinic boundary
that was left behind by earlier storms. As surface temperatures
continue to warm into the 80s F amid upper 40s/low 50s F dewpoints,
overspread by 7-8 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should
exceed 2000 J/kg as MLCINH diminishes in the next few hours.
Supercells will develop off of the immediate lee of the Rockies and
advance across the Front Range given 40 kts of effective bulk shear.
Severe wind and hail will be the main threats, though a tornado is
also possible, especially if a supercell can become sustained and
anchor to the baroclinic boundary.

However, supercells may merge into an MCS near the KS border by
later in the afternoon, where severe gusts will become the main
threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will eventually be
needed when it becomes clearer when storms will both develop and
intensify.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 08/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8FWjroQqm9_Jl_sDc7bOqnhuhQou4yqlKOYx07VKqFcTdYlpbEC7XKgEobJFzm5F3s1P_3wqF=
5n9xFjKA3kOuMtJTTE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   39120531 40480504 40690440 40690317 40330273 38830193
            37900185 37080190 36550221 36340261 36290325 36300397
            36350441 36440476 36630495 36850499 37270505 38310514
            39120531=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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