Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 07:01:08

AWUS01 KWNH 100701
FFGMPD
WIZ000-100945-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0891
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin, including Milwaukee metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100659Z - 100945Z

SUMMARY...An ongoing flash flood event over the city of Milwaukee
appears to be shifting to the north. However, areas of training
with locally high rainfall rates of at least 2-3 in/hr will
continue to impact portions of southeastern WI for another 1-2
hours with the threat beyond 09Z-10Z uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A focused heavy rainfall event has produced 7-9
inches of rain over the past 6 hours over the southwestern side of
Milwaukee (per area CWOP gauge reports) with areas of considerable
flash flooding. 20-25 kt of southwesterly flow at 850 mb has been
overrunning a nearly stationary outflow boundary located from Lake
County IL into south-central WI with Corfidi vectors suggestive of
back-building and training.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 06Z indicated 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE
remained along the outflow boundary but the northward shift
appears to be related to the ongoing warm advection regime and
northward displacement of the elevated portion of the surface
outflow. This northward shift of the heaviest rainfall has been
accompanied by scattered thunderstorm development to the north and
west over portions of south-central WI. Expect areas of training
to continue over south-central to southeastern WI with localized
hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches along with continued areas of
flash flooding through at least 09Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!60lEz1r__BMNFL2DCk-hoCZeEAstkiISJSh7CZZdD_0oY09HB5hkJlWUqOHEKqox-rCx=
eTdpHCytBnUbMRO1nYPfWyc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   43978812 43628722 42958700 42548745 42508828=20
            42868907 43418981 43938940=20

=3D =3D =3D
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