Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1920
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 06:45:52

ACUS11 KWNS 100644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100644=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern/central Iowa and northwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 100644Z - 100845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe wind risk is expected to spread east/northeast
into portions of southern/central Iowa and northwest Missouri early
this morning. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely by
08-09z.

DISCUSSION...A well organized bowing MCS producing 60-85 mph gusts
across southeast NE/northeast KS is expected to persist
east/northeast through early morning into portions of Iowa and
northwest MO. A 30 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet is
maintaining robust warm advection ahead of the bowing MCS within a
very moist and strongly unstable airmass. This system is expected
continue east/northeast near/along a surface boundary extending
northeast from southeast NE into central/northeast IA.=20

Effective shear does decrease with eastward extent, but given the
organized nature of the MCS with a well-defined rear-inflow jet and
bookend vortex on the north side, the system is likely to continue
producing severe gusts/wind damage give the favorable downstream
thermodynamic environment. However, uncertainty does exist on the
southward extent of severe potential across MO. While latest CAMs
show the system lifting northeast along the surface boundary with
gradual weakening on the southern extent, the system has yet to
shift more northeasterly.

...Leitman/Gleason.. 08/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7tbeJe1Fc0uKO7cZfKj1TzXPG9VMnEB-JnhA1YmtiwFEuTwjLbt65hretqM2NkHbILyiKY3tA=
bNGdcdecOcgAEwuMkg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41309577 42119391 42189318 42039271 41719241 41199242
            40749266 39879430 39619534 39759578 41309577=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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