Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 06:23:39 AWUS01 KWNH 100623 FFGMPD WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-101100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0890 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 222 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...southeastern NE into IA, southwestern WI and northwestern IL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 100622Z - 101100Z SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be likely over the next few hours, especially in southeastern NE, but eventually affecting portions of IA into southwestern WI and northwestern IL. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ in/hr on a localized basis can be expected along with storm total rainfall of 3 to 6+ inches through 12Z. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 06Z showed a well-defined MCV over southern NE, roughly 30 miles southeast of Hastings, tracking toward the ENE. A damaging straight line wind event has been occurring south of the NCV but warm advection to the north of a long lived and sharply defined trough axis (located from northeastern KS, across northern MO into western IL) was forming a west-east axis of thunderstorms over southeastern NE. Overrunning thunderstorms to the north of the surface trough (marked by a weak temperature gradient) were oriented parallel to the track of the MCV, setting up a favorable environment for training. SPC mesoanalysis data from 05Z showed a region of 3000 to 3500+ J/kg MLCAPE just ahead of the MCV over northeastern KS/southeastern NE and eastward to the western IA/MO border. Locally enhanced low level southerly flow just ahead of the MCV will boost an already moderately strong 25-40 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet axis which was positioned from south-central KS into southern IA and the WI/IL border. An expanding coverage of thunderstorms, already blossoming from south-central IA into the WI/IL border, should continue to evolve ahead of the advancing MCV and broader overrunning southerly flow in place. Lift should be aided by divergence within the right-entrance region of a strengthening upper level jet (per RAP forecasts) from eastern SD into MN. Given the forcing in place and high moisture (1.8 to 2.1 inch PWATs per SPC mesoanalysis), high rainfall rates are expected within areas of training, easily capable of 1 to 2 inches in an hour along with localized hourly totals of 2 to 3+ inches. While there will be relative minimums of rainfall within the MPD threat area, there is a broad threat with areas of flash flooding likely embedded within, extending from southeastern NE into IA and the WI/IL border. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85PWg1_MzokC-iM-OYt6zKd_TqVuBxT0yf7-iwblAyyxGHRpmLL_cFAg3Ahwm4hdmGcj= sjNMYATtEa0Kn1k82Z6VaYQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...LOT...MKX... OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC... LAT...LON 43479076 43328954 42788927 41958956 41359035=20 40899245 40509436 40019614 39719768 40209823=20 40939786 41839645 42919319=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .