Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1919
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 05:40:58

ACUS11 KWNS 100539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100539=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-100715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...southeast NE and northeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582...

Valid 100539Z - 100715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will remain possible over the next few
hours across southeast NE into northeast KS.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar trends show some weakening of the bowing
cluster across KS as outflow has raced southeast, as evident in KDDC
and KUEX 88-D data. An embedded supercell on the northern side of
this cluster has recently intensified, presenting very strong
velocity signatures over the past 30 minutes. The area downstream
across far southeast NE and far northeast KS (along the state
border) may see the greatest risk for more intense gusts (65-80 mph)
in the short term.=20

A very moist and strongly unstable downstream airmass is noted in
surface observations and latest mesoanalysis data. Modest vertical
shear and a 30 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet should support
continued storm organization and maintain a severe risk across the
broader region over the next several hours as convection approaches
the Missouri River.

...Leitman.. 08/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_UxK9QSbQ-nwiXdqGJx58fuogeBXg6ezjzxFjmG2RBsoP_lHLQpJh9SdRYNsXoBfUWmxNSZrJ=
otkJzVHbKcmENApW7g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40419857 40759771 40869631 40499576 39889568 39409607
            39119798 39039891 39269916 39699914 40199896 40299884
            40419857=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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