Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1918
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 03:14:20

ACUS11 KWNS 100313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100313=20
COZ000-100515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...Portions of east-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581...

Valid 100313Z - 100515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581
continues.

SUMMARY...Training supercells will continue to pose a severe hail
threat for the next couple of hours. WW 581 has been extended in
time to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Training supercells continue to develop to the
east/southeast of the Colorado Springs, CO area to the north of a
composite outflow boundary/cold front. VWP data from KPUX show
pronounced veering in the lowest 3 km, suggesting that ascent over
the boundary remains strong and should continue to support
thunderstorm development in the near term (next 1-2 hours) before
the boundary becomes increasingly displaced from the better buoyancy
in place over east-central CO. 0-6 km BWD values on the order of
45-50 knots will continue to promote supercells with an attendant
threat for large hail, possibly as large as 1.5 to 2 inches in
diameter. Downstream propagation eastward is possible as continued
training promotes storm interactions/upscale growth into a higher
MLCAPE environment to the east, but exact convective evolution
remains somewhat uncertain beyond the next couple of hours.

...Moore.. 08/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5ejIrX1J85wJbZtUQuJEdj18neMqQXkvz-_IqikGBnXgrAedcHOQ3-BbpyV23fJtX5uwJkCZ6=
repTb_khZYNd0M8ZLM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38080320 38160441 38350469 38640481 38860476 39010460
            39060419 38970311 38880282 38730269 38540260 38420260
            38210268 38090289 38080320=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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