Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1917
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 02:54:16

ACUS11 KWNS 100254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100253=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-100500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1917
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...Northern Kansas into southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581...582...

Valid 100253Z - 100500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581, 582
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for 60-80 mph winds may increase over the
next few hours across north-central Kansas and south-central
Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...KGLD reflectivity/velocity imagery continues to show
gradual upscale growth of a couple of convective clusters across
northwest KS and far southwest NE. This activity has a recent
history of producing 60-70 mph gusts, and while cold pool
consolidation/organization remains a slow process, MRMS imagery
continues to show periodic upticks in convective intensity. This
trend should continue as this activity spreads east into a more
buoyant environment downstream where MLCAPE remains between
3000-4000 J/kg. Recent CAM solutions appear to be capturing recent
convective trends well and support this idea of further
intensification over the next 2-3 hours. These solutions also hint
at the potential for 60-80 mph winds, which appears reasonable based
on environmental buoyancy and wind shear (effective bulk shear on
the order of 40 knots). It remains uncertain how widespread such
winds will be given the slow upscale growth, but narrow corridors of
severe winds appear probable.

...Moore.. 08/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8PpuSlHARltFSyN3LfZgoaj9LMr8sKVe1xncIBFMsdFRCxgTYnfKsl_s1Jc8n7OpvPPEti5jD=
Is311yikYUaX69F9Vo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39500150 39760088 40519998 40589976 40579735 40319715
            39989728 39679749 39429778 39269813 39069882 39070064
            39130121 39180154 39310160 39500150=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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