Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 01:45:28

AWUS01 KWNH 100144
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-100740-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0889
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
943 PM EDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...Eastern GA...SC Lowcountry

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100140Z - 100740Z

SUMMARY...Locally concentrated bands of showers with high rainfall
rates will continue to be a threat going into the overnight hours
across coastal areas of eastern GA and SC. Additional urban
flooding impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
along with radar shows loosely focused bands of heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity continuing to focus along and offshore of
the GA/SC coastline.

Very moist low-level cyclonic flow along the coast and extending
offshore in vicinity of a front will remain in place going into
the overnight hours, and this coupled with the persistent pooling
of moderate instability and stronger convergence near the coast
should help to facilitate additional bands of convection that will
generally advance west or northwest into the coast.

MLCAPE values along the coast are still generally near 1000 J/kg,
with a very moist/tropical environment characterized by PWs of
2.25 to 2.5 inches. This has been favoring very high rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour with some of the more recent activity
seen just southwest of Charleston.

Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches cannot be ruled out
overnight with these bands of additional convection and especially
given concerns for localized cell-training. This has generally
been consistent with recent output from the HRRR guidance.

The additional rains along with wet antecedent conditions will
promote a threat for additional flash flooding overnight.
Generally this threat will tend to be localized, with the more
urbanized locations at greatest risk including Charleston and
Savannah.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5ShEmZAGhhooKBYAPpl1DzFOQntucjCoFiUZANbvfO1T8aywLR2xrska8DgO_2fYCzeL=
ig0TxrCnazd4eABQw3O85_o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33737940 33277908 32378013 31658088 31138149=20
            31598203 32428159 33218065 33697982=20

=3D =3D =3D
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