Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 10 2025 01:06:14 ACUS01 KWNS 100106 SWODY1 SPC AC 100104 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ....Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ....Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ...Dean.. 08/10/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .