Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1914
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 09 2025 19:54:43

ACUS11 KWNS 091954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091954=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1914
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of far northeast Missouri into far
southeastern Iowa and central into northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091954Z - 092130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may occur with the stronger storms
that manage to mature and sustain themselves.

DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorms are developing along the eastern
fringes of a primary confluence band and ahead of a surface cold
front, where ample heating is underway. Surface temperatures are
approaching 90 F in many places, and given low 70s F dewpoints,
MLCAPE is exceeding 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Deep-layer
forcing and shear are lagging well to the west of the free warm
sector, prompting great uncertainty in the overall coverage and
intensity of storms into question. Still, ample buoyancy in place
will promote wet downburst and damaging gust potential with any
storms that can become organized. Therefore, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch, should storms become more abundant and organized.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 08/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!64RSpbONfRsTDEhl3BUsbxGMJBCPb_FsmqYodMRxRIWCpUdPjn5r_pXZ5vA4eyJTe49tguXwI=
nsNA-zIjQMRiUp24hg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40149316 42049083 42648908 42568789 42268752 41918749
            41248785 40688854 40348936 40108990 39929064 39919186
            40149316=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.