Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 09 2025 19:41:32 AWUS01 KWNH 091941 FFGMPD SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-100140- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0886 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 340 PM EDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...SC Pee Dee/Lowcountry...Far Eastern GA...Northeast FL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 091940Z - 100140Z SUMMARY...Bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms should tend to increase in coverage over the next few hours. Very heavy rainfall rates will be likely, which will pose a threat for at least some urban flash flooding/inundation concerns. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a general expansion of cooling convective tops just offshore of the Southeast coastline, with radar and surface data showing a general westward advance of the shower and thunderstorm activity. Very moist low-level cyclonic flow along the coast and extending offshore in vicinity of a front should help maintain at least disorganized convection over the next several hours which will further be aided by the pooling of moderate instability. MLCAPE values along the coast are near 1000 J/kg, and there is a fair amount of frictional convergence noted along the coast which is further supporting the potential for convective bands to at least focus near and just inland of the SC/GA coastline. Areas of northeast FL will tend to have a bit more of an inland diurnal heating/instability focused threat for slow-moving areas of convection within the cyclonic low-level flow regime. PWs of 2.2 to 2.4 inches are in place, and thus indicative of a very tropical environment. This moisture along with the instability should favor rainfall rates capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with these bands of convection, and some localized cell-training concerns will be possible which could foster some spotty totals of 3 to 5 inches by this evening. This is generally supported by some of the recent HRRR guidance. Given the rainfall potential, some urban flooding concerns will be possible, and this threat may be locally exacerbated along the immediate coast by the elevated tides associated with the persistent onshore flow. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fMEkmp4jfVjtWkbspGz2PMvdCGl6_1Mkh1PiDHh0rOBITh2-fNcfRMRdZ5KJJsrCvei= EcFrd3GwXrnj0ZuSLhMbk6w$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...JAX...MLB...TBW... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 33917908 33447888 32258039 31228107 30388122=20 29228102 28968181 29578252 30388271 31308242=20 32538143 33218065 33757982=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .