Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 09 2025 19:16:28 ACUS03 KWNS 091915 SWODY3 SPC AC 091914 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ....Discussion... Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the interior U.S., between larger-scale mean ridging centered offshore of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated surface frontal zone, reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, most likely across parts of the southern Great Plains by early Monday, could remain a possible focus for stronger potential destabilization and renewed convective development later Monday into Monday night. However, guidance generally indicates that this boundary will tend to become more diffuse through the period, beneath weak/weakly sheared deep-layer mean flow. Isolated to, perhaps, widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather may not be entirely out of the question, but support for this will most likely depend of sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. While the westerlies remain largely confined to the higher latitudes through this period, a significant short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity to the west of the upper Great Lakes. It currently appears that mid-level forcing for ascent and shear could become conditionally supportive of organized strong to severe thunderstorm development south of the international border by early Monday evening. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moisture return and cooling aloft, ahead of an associated cold front, will contribute to sufficient destabilization. ...Kerr.. 08/09/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .