Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 09 2025 16:23:43 ACUS01 KWNS 091623 SWODY1 SPC AC 091622 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ....IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ....NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ....CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ....Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .