Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1912
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 09 2025 15:04:24

ACUS11 KWNS 091504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091503=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-091630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...parts of extreme northeast Iowa into southern and
central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091503Z - 091630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds gusts are possible if the ongoing
storms can intensify through mid-afternoon. Convective trends are
being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...An elongated MCS continues to gradually progress
eastward along a stationary surface frontal boundary. Small bowing
segments along the IA/MN border have recently produced sub-severe
winds, with the Mason City, IA ASOS recently reporting rapid surface
pressure rises and a 43 kt gust. Though some anvil cirrus have
overspread some of the preceding warm sector, surface temperatures
are warming into the 80s F amid at least low 70s F dewpoints,
yielding 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Despite the aforementioned buoyancy, the
stronger deep-layer shear is primarily confined to the post-frontal
environment, and is oriented roughly parallel to the elongated MCS
leading line. As such, there are questions regarding how intense
this MCS may become through mid-afternoon, with regional radar
imagery showing convective outflow gradually undercutting the MCS.

Nonetheless, given preceding buoyancy, it is plausible that an
uptick in damaging gust potential may increase pending favorable
self-organization of the MCS. Such conditions are being monitored
for the subsequent need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 08/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6hY2oIzH7UB81RCdvxQuP7PdpImywp1s2QKfM6mPgjTVYGl6Den-rc9WWsFoS_tk8aKg6Zv-1=
MtcYW7a3V6xU0QnFac$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42579149 42649188 42769225 42919257 43009272 43139278
            43259270 43529205 43849123 43819114 44698903 44738779
            43958751 43058784 42778806 42578867 42508961 42579149=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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