Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1909
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 09 2025 09:29:12

ACUS11 KWNS 090929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090928=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-091100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern NE and far southwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579...

Valid 090928Z - 091100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579
continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for potentially significant wind gusts will
accompany an intense supercell as it tracks east/northeast toward
the NE/IA border over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A hybrid supercell/small bow has been producing
severe/damaging gusts over the past 1-2 hours across southeast NE.
Radar presentation shows very strong outbound velocities aloft
coincident with damage reports, and most recently a 91 mph measured
gust in Fillmore County. This activity is occurring in a strongly
unstable airmass, with MUCAPE near 4000 J/kg in a corridor ahead of
a southeastward-sagging cold front. Convection will likely persist
at least another couple of hours, and given the favorable downstream
thermodynamic environment, severe gusts, some greater than 75 mph,
are expected to continue as the storm approaches the Missouri River
vicinity by 11z.

...Leitman.. 08/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!59ZSNtUApJeJ9lHXwXq-wgcGVIOm5fFHNYuKQ_NmTZ8i6ifkkgij3URrRGm4VI1j9HNs7M2bv=
AMWn6rmERX5zUMskyI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   40689811 41169785 41439747 41559703 41589618 41559586
            41449568 41219557 40729574 40439614 40339738 40289790
            40529810 40689811=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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