Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1904
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 08 2025 22:34:07

ACUS11 KWNS 082234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082233=20
MIZ000-090000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1904
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Areas affected...Central to northeast Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082233Z - 090000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across Lower
Michigan for the next couple of hours, and may pose a transient
severe hail/wind threat. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Transient convection has been ongoing across Lower MI
along a surface confluence zone for the past couple of hours, but a
couple of deeper cells have developed across northeast Lower MI over
the past 30-60 minutes per IR imagery and composite reflectivity.
Based on MRMS vertical ice data, these cells likely reached
sufficient intensity for isolated severe hail (most likely 1 to 1.25
inch in diameter) before gradually weakening. Continued low-level
ascent within a weakly capped and buoyant (2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
environment will likely continue to promote isolated thunderstorm
development prior to sunset and the onset of nocturnal cooling.
However, modest deep-layer shear (per regional VWPs) will promote
transient storm organization and the potential for sporadic severe
hail and damaging winds. In general, the severe threat is expected
to remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance.

...Moore/Guyer.. 08/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5DHJRkyaeSonRt0K9wOg3xi3o9UN5eh2ghGn1twO0hVH_-t0K5uWGznrua9ZYOOfaRCTQUROH=
bv0Lf5hL63WIACFYp0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43208427 43148459 43218494 43348516 43588530 43898533
            44148508 44468477 44808460 45258420 45398388 45448358
            45328334 45048316 44678308 44068316 43708344 43458378
            43208427=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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