Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 08 2025 22:24:22

AWUS01 KWNH 082224
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0883
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Areas affected...West-Central FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082222Z - 090200Z

SUMMARY...Very heavy shower and thunderstorm activity moving into
the Tampa metropolitan area and adjacent suburbs will continue
through the mid-evening hours. Some urban flash flooding impacts
will be possible due to extremely high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows very heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity moving gradually westward across
west-central FL, with an emphasis on the broader Tampa
metropolitan area including the eastern suburbs.

Very moist and unstable air with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500
J/kg coupled with PWs of 2.2 to 2.4 inches is helping to drive
convection with rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ inches/hour. These
storms are expected to continue for at least a few more hours
going through the mid-evening time frame as low to mid-level
cyclonic flow/vort energy near the eastern Gulf Coast region in
association with a surface trough/weak front persists.

Given the high rainfall rates and relatively slow cell-motions,
some rainfall totals over the next few hours may reach 3 to 5+
inches. This will pose concerns for mainly urban flooding impacts
around the Tampa, FL vicinity and the adjacent suburbs where
already there has been locally a few inches of rainfall.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9UXYKuqy4Ady7FrH_flyV30gJZuFaGUuRUoq2SlnXNUF88Vhhwshaw8LeT9eXpSAWkTZ=
j95UBvceqK6y9i2zZVCt_iw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   28398165 28058146 27638184 27288209 27218256=20
            27378285 27928294 28358234=20

=3D =3D =3D
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