Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 08 2025 16:22:07

ACUS01 KWNS 081620
SWODY1
SPC AC 081618

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT OVER PARTS THE UPPER MIDWEST....

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Scattered damaging winds,
large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible.

....Upper Midwest...
The large convective complex that affected ND/MN last night has
mostly dissipated, with the associated shortwave trough lifting
across the MN Arrowhead.  Shortwave ridging is occurring in the wake
of this system, which should suppress deep convective development
for most of the afternoon.  Southeasterly low-level winds and
daytime heating across much of MN and eastern SD will help
re-establish a very moist/unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) by
late afternoon.

Another strong shortwave trough now over WY will begin affecting the
ND/MN area by that time, with an associated cold front approaching
the area.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead
of the front, mainly after 00z.  Deep-layer shear will support
supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts.  A few tornadoes are also possible, given the very moist
environment and backed low-level winds.  However, many of the storms
may be elevated and behind the front.  Activity will persist deep
into the night, spreading eastward across MN and into parts of
northern WI and western Upper MI.

...Hart/Squitieri.. 08/08/2025

$$

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