Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1903
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 08 2025 09:32:18

ACUS11 KWNS 080931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080931=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-081100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Areas affected...far eastern ND into northwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577...

Valid 080931Z - 081100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts remain possible the next
couple hours across northwest Minnesota. A gradual weakening trend
is expected through early morning with south and east extent across
northeast/central Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...A well organized bow echo moving out of eastern ND into
northwest MN has produced gusts in the 55-80 kt range over the past
1-2 hours, and perhaps a brief tornado west of Grand Forks within
leading-edge mesovortices. The VWP from KMVX shows a strong
rear-inflow signature of 70-80 kt in the 1-2 km range.=20

Severe gusts will likely persist another couple of hours into
northwest MN given the well-organized nature of the bow echo and a
favorable CAPE/shear downstream environment. With south and eastward
extent, instability decreases and increasing inhibition should
result in a gradual weakening trend into central and northeast MN
through early morning. A local expansion of WW 577 may be needed
across northwest MN/the remainder of the Grand Forks CWA. However,
the need for a downstream watch is uncertain and will depend on
convective trends over the next hour or so.

...Leitman.. 08/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_XSC96wExphKcDu2VKLksP2ghFczkWcy3-9zPyDvC0raz1DbHFMmMX7uuyOEYeVHOVJF7iVEq=
khVvMBHJ5GN0MQaVN4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   49079676 49119547 49069466 48609406 47809364 47089367
            46419419 45869528 45649644 45929804 46539786 48069793
            48879796 49079676=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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