Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1902
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 08 2025 06:18:32

ACUS11 KWNS 080618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080618=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-080745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of ND into far northwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576...577...

Valid 080618Z - 080745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576, 577
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will persist another few hours
across central/eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...Convection across ND has congealed into one distinct
convective line over the past hour. The southern extent of the line
has shown signs of weakening as outflow has at times surged ahead of
the line. Meanwhile, stronger/better organized reflectivity and
velocity signatures continue with northern portions of the line
moving into northeast ND.=20

The VWP from MBX indicates a healthy rear-inflow jet around 50-60
kt. Furthermore, a very moist and unstable airmass is in place ahead
of convection. A modest southerly low-level jet also is nosing into
the region, along with supercell wind profiles evident in VWP and
mesoanalysis data downstream from ongoing convection. This should
help to maintain an organized line. Damaging/severe gusts in the
55-65 mph range will likely continue, with an isolated stronger gust
in the 70-80 mph range still possible in the short term.

...Leitman.. 08/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_51vOiDSrPk3HbenzYC3nZ_T0RK1dAmsCUtFmXJpOqVbEIsIhEybUUuIdT9mLpm6-BYibbSIK=
BK-2OWBJAsED1ZFa7A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   49009969 49239767 48829655 47439715 46369860 45880036
            45900183 46090228 46450252 49009969=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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