Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 08 2025 01:01:51 ACUS01 KWNS 080101 SWODY1 SPC AC 080059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ....Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ....Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ...Dean.. 08/08/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .