Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1899
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 08 2025 00:29:30

ACUS11 KWNS 080029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080028=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-080230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575...

Valid 080028Z - 080230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across
eastern Montana this evening. Wind and hail remain the primary
threats.

DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale support appears to be
spreading across central into eastern MT early this evening. Deep
convection is responding to the upper trough with a gradually
maturing squall line now evident from Yellowstone-Petroleum County.
This linear MCS should gradually strengthen over the next few hours
as it begins to surge east-northeast along a frontal zone that
currently stretches from southeast MT-northwest ND. Wind profiles
favor supercells, but current trends suggest a more complex mode
will continue. If the aforementioned squall line continues to
strengthen, damaging winds should become more likely, especially if
bowing structures evolve. Strengthening LLJ is expected to encourage
longevity as this activity spreads across the northern High Plains.

...Darrow.. 08/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_VTj4HejJi0bFQkTvqg2RIexzguXjoeVvB8awm_zDaFFrK4jrdwERU49kwkelcAYaq5OwX_S9=
JspqhPVqUdOMAC4B1Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45170827 47630828 47920402 45450404 45170827=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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