Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1897
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 07 2025 19:54:59

ACUS11 KWNS 071954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071954=20
NDZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of western and central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071954Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Uncertainty lingers concerning potential thunderstorm
coverage and sustenance into and through 5-7 PM CDT.  However, any
sustained thunderstorm development may include rapidly intensifying
supercells accompanied by a risk for large hail, locally damaging
wind gusts  and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Along and southeast of a weak baroclinic zone, near the
leading edge of air impacted by outflow from now dissipated
convective development, boundary-layer air with seasonably high
moisture content is becoming characterized by moderate to strong
potential instability.  This is being supported by steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated a broad plume of warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great
Plains.=20=20

Based on latest model output and objective analysis, the northern
periphery of the stronger capping may now be north of the surface
front, roughly near/northwest of the Dickinson through Garrison and
Minot vicinities.  However, large-scale scale ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, a subtle mid-level short wave
perturbation, and localized area of enhanced low-level convergence
might be sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition and support the
initiation of at least isolated thunderstorm development late this
afternoon.  If this occurs, there appears potential for rapid
intensification, and the evolution of a large supercell, in the
presence of moderate to strong deep-layer shear beneath 30-40 kt
southwesterly flow around 500 mb.=20

The environment appears conducive to the potential for large hail,
locally damaging surface gusts, and, despite modest low-level
hodographs, a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

...Kerr/Hart.. 08/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8KemL46AfRwCQBbOodAQfYRU5PicTQOA7LIAJShhw8S3kFgsmK0J5DB8UmFrAnq2LuJ0Wc64C=
2pV7A67Cxrc6soROaA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   47540379 48680138 48179986 47190026 46830139 47080353
            47540379=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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