Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 07 2025 19:30:29 ACUS03 KWNS 071930 SWODY3 SPC AC 071929 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IA TO NORTHEAST WI... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across a portion of the central to southern High Plains. A more concentrated swath of severe is possible from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin. ....Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk as-is, with primary change to expand level 1-MRGL eastward in MI to MO. Spatial confidence is low on mesoscale details, especially given the large spread in CAM guidance for late D2 convective evolution upstream in MN. The convectively modified cold front should slow its eastward progression as the upstream shortwave trough/mid-level low stalls. The bulk of moderately enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should remain to the cool side of the front, with a pronounced cross-boundary gradient from northwest to southeast. This should generally yield multicell clustering with an uptick in intensity as diurnal destabilization occurs from IA to upper MI. The trailing/western portion of the daytime storm swath should be a focus for regenerative nocturnal storm development, as a low-level jet noses across the Lower MO Valley. Sporadic strong to isolated severe gusts and perhaps hail may linger into Saturday night. ....Central/southern High Plains... A cold front sweeping south on D2 should become quasi-stationary over the southern High Plains around the TX Panhandle on D3. Isolated storms are possible along the boundary with a threat for sporadic microbursts amid hot temperatures south of the front. More organized severe potential should be focused in the post-frontal regime along the Front Range. This should be centered on northeast CO amid stronger mid-level westerlies within the base of a stalled trough south of a low over the southern Prairie Provinces. This could yield a few supercells in the afternoon to evening and have expanded the level 2-MRGL risk north. Still, confidence is low on whether more than weak buoyancy will be present. ...Grams.. 08/07/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .